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Definitely Maybe?
David Cameron's aides are now briefing the press that Conservative MEPs must leave the arch-federalist EPP grouping before the next European elections or face deselection by the party.
The announcement comes much sooner than many pundits expected. Sceptical commentators, EURSOC included, believed that Cameron had kicked the issue of Europe 'into the long grass' following cries of outrage from Europhile Tories. However, the new leader must have come under pressure from the majority in his party - not to mention promises that the press would hound him to follow through on the only solid pledge he made while campaiging for the leadership in autumn.
One leading Europhile Tory told the Telegraph that the new rule was "ideological nonsense" inspired by an "extreme minority group within the Conservative delegation." Others warn that outside the EPP-ED bloc, the Tories risk being grouped with far-right delegations in the parliament.
Around a quarter of the Tories' 27 MEPS are thought to want to remain aligned with the EPP.
However, it's more likely that the ruling is closer to the beliefs of the Conservative Party as a whole - not to mention a fair reflection of British public opinion. Eurosceptic Tories argued that some of their colleagues' affection for the EPP lies more in the perks it offers than any parallels with British conservative politics.
It's still a couple of years before the European parliament election. A lot can happen between now and then - but with Angela Merkel of Germany burnishing her Europhile credentials and a series of Euro-friendly governments due to hold the rotating presidency of the EU over the next two years, it looks unlikely that any sudden change in EPP policy is in the offing.
Cameron might still try to wriggle out of the committment: After all, he is basking in the glow of positive coverage from the BBC and liberal press. Setting his party on a more Eurosceptic track will end that honeymoon sharpish - he might feel he needs another 18 months of "Tories are human after all" press before he breaks away from the Europhile grouping properly.
Perhaps the EPP break - which is inevitable and only response to the broader sentiment within British conservatism - is Cameron's "red meat" offering to party traditionalists, who have watched in dismay as the new leader broke with pretty much everything else Tories have stood for.
Shadow foreign secretary William Hague is due in Brussels at the end of the month to negotiate terms for a new Eurosceptic grouping in the parliament. Conservatives hope to draw members from new member states in central Europe.
