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Damn Lies And Statistics
Ultraviolent Britain
Do I believe the government, or my own lying eyes? That's the question millions of Britons are asking themselves this week as the government issues figures claiming that crime has tumbled dramatically since Labour came to power.
Certainly, many would agree that the threat of burglary seems lower than the late 80s. This is partly because those things worth nicking - video recorders, televisions, car stereos - are now so widespread and cheap that the criminal classes no longer deem it necessary to steal them. Indeed, lacking a widescreen television and DVD player could probably classify a household as impoverished in many quarters of Britain.
But is violent crime down? The Sun claims there is a knife crime every FOUR MINUTES - and this doesn't include figures for the numerous under 16s affected by knife violence.
Home Secretary Jacqui Smith says that the statistics Labour use show violent crime down forty percent since 1997, when the government came to power; violent incidents reported to police fell 12 percent last year alone, if the government is to be believed.
How do they arrive at these figures, when the newspapers and anyone you meet in a pub will regale you with tales of unprecedented levels of violent crime?
Philip Johnston questions how the figures are gathered in the Telegraph. A report by Civitas last year claimed that the BCS methodology used by the government to measure crime was "truly bizarre" - one simple recalculation suggested that three million crimes may have been omitted.
"The picture has become muddied and it is difficult to believe that it has not been done deliberately to make it difficult, if not impossible, to see the outline of anything approaching the truth," he concludes.
