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Brown Is The New Black
Dark clouds of gloom at Labour party headquarters this week as polls suggest that Gordon Brown has quickly become the lowest-ranked Prime Minister since Neville Chamberlain.
Following a brief honeymoon period, when Brownite hotheads almost persuaded their boss to call a general election which they believed would crush the Conservatives for good, Brown's support has plummeted. The financial downturn hasn't helped the man who made certain that his name and mug were attached to any news of British economic success during the Blair era.
Indeed, Brown's supporters claimed credit for more than Britain's financial performance: In the later years of Tony Blair's premiership, the then Chancellor's men were making it known that while Blair was gallivanting around the globe trying to save the planet, Brown's team were runnin' tings back home.
Blair's retirement and Brown's succession were supposed to herald a new era of "serious" politics. Gone were the days of New Labour spin, of Blairite feints and doublespeak, to be replaced by a mood of honesty and Presbyterian hard work.
Following a good performance over the summer months, Brown's popularity began to take a turn for the worse following the election that never was. The media - who will believe any old crap the government throws at them, but never forgives a bottler - still fumes following Brown's apparent backdown just as their hacks prepared teams for an autumn election. The PM's pathetic performance at the signing of the Lisbon Treaty, when he sneaked in to sign the document after the 26 other premiers had taken part in an official ceremony, compounded his image as a ditherer, an "invisible man" who would slip out of the public eye as soon as the going got tough. The Northern Rock debacle reflected badly on the government and its nationalisation said much about the government's handling of the economy, and the broader structural weaknesses of Brown's economic achievement.
Indeed, Brown's much-vaunted Presbyterian prudence doesn't sit well with the credit-crazed frenzy that has made up much of British economic activity in the past decade.
It's got so bad that newspapers are already discussing potential replacements for the hapless PM. The Sunday Times was gossiping that Labour MPs are pondering if Brown will make it until the next election; there is fevered speculation that Brown could be fatally wounded by a backbench rebellion over the proposed 42 day terror detention bill.
Brown's people's have dismissed speculation of a succession race as mischief making by "Blairite Ultras." And, indeed, this reveals the depth of mutual loathing still at play within the Labour Party. Brown's people used every trick in the book to force Blair out of power short of provoking a vote of no confidence. The sheer malice and treachery of their antics shocked even supporters of the party who were fed up with Blair and hoped he would stand down sooner rather than later. Now Brown's lot are in power, the backstabbing has been replaced with paranoia that the pro-Blair wing of the party is trying to machinate a Blairite succession.
The polls suggest that while most are glad to be shot of Tony Blair, many Labour supporters miss him.
EURSOC's comments on the Blair succession in January 2006 seem prescient, bearing in mind Brown's travails:
"One way for national leaders to ensure that their premiership is remembered as a prosperous golden age is to leave your successor with an inbox bulging with enormous difficulties...
"Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown takes the credit for steering the economy through its recent prosperous patch - so it can be expected that much of the blame will fall on him if the UK's current slowdown becomes a full-blown recession. Indeed, such has been Blair's willingness to leave the entire economic portfolio in his Chancellor's hands, it might turn out to be one of the few times in modern history where the causes of an economic downturn can be traced directly to one man...
"(Blair) remains fairly popular, but is concerned about his heritage - and won't want to hang around to watch an era of gilded prosperity sink into grey depression...
"The flipside of leaving your problems for your successor is getting out before they blow up in your face."
"Perhaps (Blair's) friends, rather than his enemies, will tell him that the best way to preserve his legacy is to leave before it turns to dust."
Seems like things are crumbling in earnest for Brown. Can he escape what seems like certain defeat? One great bonus for Labour is the utter uselessness of the Conservative opposition. Rarely in British history has an opposition party been so devoid of policy or principle; the Tories veer between opportunistic snipes at Labour failures and weak-willed pledges to continue "business as usual under new management" if they ever gain power.
Another straw for Labour to clutch at could be the forthcoming recession. If we are in for a 1930s-style crash complete with globally-warmed dustbowls in the Home Counties, that's one thing, but if the forecast economic woes have a soft landing, or emerge as less devastating than predicted, Britain could enjoy a new period of modest growth in the months leading up to the election. If this is the case, Brown will have to hope that voters thank him for the green shoots of recovery rather than blame him for the dark clouds of recession.
get better, economy
