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France Doesn't Back Blair
Well, that didn't last long. No sooner did a rising chorus of disapproval spread across Europe following Nicolas Sarkozy's declaration of support for Tony Blair to become the EU's first President, but France's EU minister has changed tack to claim that Paris has "no preferred candidate" for the post.
EU Observer reports that EU affairs minister Jean-Pierre Jouyet told press any talk of individuals was "premature" and no candidate would be chosen before the end of the year.
However, he added, France would be looking for someone with "a personality who has charisma, experience, and enough drive to energise the work of the European Council."
Is dropping Blair part of Sarkozy's fightback at home? Prominent French statesmen, including former President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, have publicly opposed Blair's candidacy, drawing attention to his poor record on European integration while PM and, of course, his support for the US-led invasion of Iraq.
France's citizens - who overwhelmingly opposed the invasion, and were scornful of Blair's closeness to President George Bush's "Neocon" vision, not to mention the British PM's association with the dreaded "neoliberalism" - were not enthused by Sarkozy's choice of candidate either.
We argued that Blair would be chosen for the job because of his instant recognition factor, his global status: Blair descending from an aeroplane to represent the EU at some summit would grab the attention of the global media in a way that the other contenders for the post wouldn't. The presence of a serious player would also encourage the role to grow in status and powers in time for Blair's successor - much in the same way casting serious actor Christopher Ecclestone as Doctor Who in 2005 prepared the way for the the role to be viewed as a respectable career choice for successive Time Lords.
However, we also argued that Sarkozy would drop Blair like a hot potato at the first opportunity, provided he could bargain a better deal in another EU competence in exchange.
Where we may have been wrong is that the association of Tony Blair with the Presidency has already given in a status, without Blair having to take the post: Millions of people who didn't even know that the EU Presidency existed became aware of the job when they realised they didn't want Blair in it.
We also expected Sarkozy to be making his bid - and dropping Blair - from a position of power.
The past two months have seen the French President's support fall dramatically. Indeed, rather than being in the position to hand out patronage and risk offending public opinion with displays of daring policy, Sarkozy has found himself needing to shore up domestic support in order to proceed with his next round of reforms. A surrender to France's closed-shop taxi drivers was a first step; rolling over to the anti-genetically modified foods movement a second.
He has lost friends in Europe too. As EURSOC reported yesterday, France's vision of a "Mediterranean Union" has not gone down well in Berlin. Sarkozy's relationship with Germany's Angela Merkel, once warm, has frozen over, to the extent that the British press is reporting that the famed Franco-German motor has run out of steam.
Two meetings between high-profile ministers - including Merkel and Sarkozy themselves - have been cancelled in recent weeks. Sarkozy is said to have pushed Merkel to co-sign an article supporting his "Club Med" scheme. She refused, believing it to be a threat to EU unity and a distraction. He responded by pulling out of a scheduled meeting. Berlin is reported to be dreading the forthcoming French presidency of the EU, which begins this summer with a summit to be attended by Mediterranean leaders.
The British government, not exactly riding high in the popularity stakes itself - sees tensions between Paris and Berlin as an opportunity. Sarkozy has wooed Gordon Brown almost with the same ardour as Angela Merkel. Brown, though he belatedly backed Sarkozy's call for Tony Blair to take over the Presidency of the EU, would be furious if his old rival made a distracting impact on the global stage once again.
Brown and Merkel probably have more in common politically than either has with Sarkozy, and personally, they are both the offspring of preachers. Merkel - sympathetically for Brown - is implacably opposed to a Blair presidency.
Could private feelings come to dominate public policy in Europe's Big Three?
