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Meet Your New Alien Overlord
Blair's bid for EU Presidency snuffed out as Eurocrats rally to veteran federalist
He might have the backing of France's President Sarkozy, but Britain's former Prime Minister Tony Blair appears to have failed to convince senior EU officials that he is the man for the job as the first President of the European Council.
Reuters is reporting that Blair's failure to bring Britain into the European mainstream during his ten-year premiership is one of the key reasons EU diplomats are opposing his candidacy. His support for the invasion of Iraq and his "divisive nature", because of his reputed affection for free-market principles, are also held against him in many European capitals.
This leaves Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker as the front-runner for the job. One of Europe's leading federalist Eurocrats, and the archetypal European "man in a grey suit", Juncker has quietly been at the centre of European compromise for more than a decade.
He has previously been mooted as European Commission President. In 2004, France and Germany (under Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schröder) backed their tame Belgian, Guy Verhofstadt, for the job. Juncker ruled himself out when other nations, led by Britain, opposed the Belgian PM - possibly because he refused to be nominated as France's "second choice" or compromise candidate. In the event, the job went to Portugal's José Manuel Barroso - Tony Blair's first choice for the job.
Juncker also railed against Blair in 2005, when Luxembourg held the rotating EU Presidency, for refusing to accept a budget deal he had proposed. His keynote speech at the opening of the Presidency was an attack on Blair.
Revenge will be sweet, then.
While Juncker is barely recognised in his own street never mind in the world's great capitals, he has long been at the heart of European policy, and with a predictably federalist bent. Nominally centre-right, he currently serves as chairman of finance ministers of the 15-nation euro zone.
He has been a strong supporter of the EU Constitution. When Luxembourg (population 468,571) voted by 56 percent to 44 to ratify the Constitution in 2005, Juncker claimed that the vote was as important as the rejection of the treaty by France (pop 60 million) and the Netherlands (pop 16million).
Following the popular rejection of the Constitution by the Dutch and French, Juncker declared "we must continue with our ambitious projects."
In July last year, Juncker admitted that the Lisbon Treaty handed powers to Brussels - and said Gordon Brown was right to conceal this fact from the British people.
"There is a single legal personality for the EU, the primacy of European law, a new architecture for foreign and security policy, there is an enormous extension in the fields of the EU's powers, there is Charter of Fundamental Rights," he said.
Juncker said it was right to have a debate on European issues throughout the continent - except in Britain.
"I am astonished at those who are afraid of the people: one can always explain that what is in the interest of Europe is in the interests of our countries," he told Belgian newspaper Le Soir.
"Britain is different. Of course there will be transfers of sovereignty. But would I be intelligent to draw the attention of public opinion to this fact?"
So. He's practically unknown outside Brussels, he supports debate on the European Union, but only when Eurocrats are likely to win, and he is dismisses democratic rejection of federalist treaties. Perfect for the job, then.
As for Blair, it was reported that he would run for the Presidency, but only if his appointment was guaranteed and only if the post came with real powers. He made it clear he didn't fancy another few years of shaking hands with dismal, grey Eurocrats - instead, he and his sponsor, Sarkozy, wanted to see President Blair projecting Europe's image on the global stage.
Blair's record, however, compares unfavourably with his rival's. A self-confessed Europhile, Blair was unable to bring Britain into the single currency or the borderless travel zone. He opposed Brussels carve-ups of budgets, an area of expertise in which Juncker excelled. Blair also gave in to pressure from the public to offer the British a referendum on the Constitution in 2005. Europe knew Blair would lose, and Eurocrats like Juncker fiercely oppose offering referenda on EU issues when the result is in doubt.
Furthermore, Blair was scuppered from the outset because he represented an important country with selfish interests. Because Juncker's country doesn't amount to much, there is little that hinders his functioning as an identity-free Eurocrat: A Frenchman, a German or an Italian would have a hard job going for the Presidency for the same reasons.
Juncker, who is European before anything else, offers a different prospect.
So where does that leave the Presidency? Blair wanted more powers for the post, and Sarkozy wanted an internationally recognised big hitter in the chair, in order to amplify its stature. That isn't going to happen. Perhaps Sarkozy, who felt he could impose his candidate on the rest of Europe, is being shown the limit of his powers. Time was when France had first choice of the EU's top jobs, sharing them out among its satellite nations and distributing others to its cadre of enarques, who were indubitably French first and Europeans second. France's current weakness in that respect is a legacy of the Chirac era: Chirac's meddling and arrogance alienated many smaller nations, who refused to see the EU as France writ large.
It remains to be seen if Sarkozy will be able to free himself from that legacy: Blair's apparent rejection suggests he has his work cut out - though the French President has other, more important battles to fight.
