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Wooing Bayrou
Tender words and tough love for France's centrist leader
François Bayrou, the much-touted "Third Man" in France's presidential election is preparing to make the biggest speech of his life. He may have delivered more important addresses in his long political career, but none will have had all France - and much of the outside world - hanging on his every word.
Today, at 15.30 (14.30 GMT), he is expected to give his response to pleas from supporters of Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal over who his supporters should vote for in the final round of the election.
It is unlikely to be a simple answer. Bayrou appealed to conservatives who dread Sarkozy and well as left-wingers who saw nothing new in Royal's campaign. Then there were the leftists who thought he was better-placed to beat Sarkozy in the second round. And, not forgetting, there are also those who traditionally vote for Bayrou's smallish centre-right pro-EU party, the UDF, which has a history of serving in conservative coalitions.
Together, these groups represent seven million votes - 18 percent of the total cast. Pollsters believe that they are likely to go fifty-fifty between the remaining two candidates, perhaps with a slight edge to Sarkozy. All other things remaining the same, this would hand Sarkozy the presidency. However, Bayrou's opinion could reinforce doubts held by voters over both candidates - and an endorsement from the centre-right would be a great coup for Royal's anti-Sarkozy coalition.
Pundits believe Bayrou is unlikely to jump either way. This hasn't prevented officials from both parties harassing him for his endorsement.
Charles Bremner rounds up some of the appeals - and threats- Bayrou is said to have received in recent days. Ségolène Royal made a corny and mawkish plea "as a woman of the left", while Sarkozy's henchmen warned that if Bayrou didn't come up with the goods, Sarkozy's conservative UMP would run candidates against the UDF in the forthcoming election. Previously the two centre-right parties had enjoyed a carve-up of seats.
On the face of it, Royal has most to offer. She is reported to have dangled the possibility of ministerial posts before Bayrou's team in exchange for an alliance. An anti-Sarkozy front with Bayrou was proposed by senior Socialist Party members in the days before the first round, and was dismissed by both parties. However, Royal wants to build a "healing majority" and having a mildly right-wing figure on board could help. After all, if she wins, it is likely to be by a sliver - France will be split almost down the middle. The fact that Sarkozy voters - older, by and large, and often businesspeople or with higher salaries - will be paying for the Socialist programme Royal plans to introduce suggests she could do with some right-wing clout.
Sarkozy can't make rash offers to Bayrou. This is partly down to the success of his campaign. He rallied almost all his UMP party behind him (Senior figures in Royal's party took her lead only grudgingly). This support will need to be paid for in ministerial posts and patronage.
Bayrou is playing hard to get and might prefer to keep it that way. All pundits agree that the 55 year old plans another run for president in 2012, and he needs to build the UDF's small electoral base to do that. Bayrou is banking that whoever wins the presidency, little will change. Sarkozy's reforms will fail to overcome trade union resistance and he'll dwindle in stature like Chirac, or Royal's Old Left policies will keep France fixed firmly on the road to decline.
And in that case, voters will need another Third Man saviour.
