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Iran "Has Days" To Respond
Tony Blair has warned Iran that it must find a solution for the return of fifteen British sailors taken hostage "within days."
The British Foreign Office says it has no idea where the 14 men and one woman are, though it is reported that they have been moved to the Iranian capital Tehran. However, Britain's Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett has held face-to-face talks with foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, in the first high level attempt to defuse the crisis.
Iran insists they were captured in Iranian waters: It claims they have already "confessed" to this; Eyewitness accounts from fishermen in the Gulf argue that the sailors and Royal Marines were in Iraqi waters before being escorted away by vessels run by Iran's Revolutionary Guard.
Reports on some blogs and newspapers over the weekend suggested that the captives might be tried for espionage. The BBC plays down the espionage claims, reporting that Tehran has warned the men's fate "is being considered legally." Others claim that Iran might free the prisoners in exchange for Iranian agents arrested in Iraq. The Guardian reports on news in an Arabic newspaper which claims the seizure had been planned some days in advance as part of Iran's plans to secure the return of its agents.
Blair said that Iran "should not be under any doubt at all about how seriously we regard this act, which is unjustified and wrong."
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has backed US calls for the release of the hostages, as has the EU. French President Jacques Chirac spoke of his "complete solidarity" with the UK on the issue.
The crisis throws up numerous questions. The sailors and Royal Marines travelling on light boats, operated from the frigate HMS Cornwall. Cornwall might have been some distance from the crews, but in such dangerous waters how come there was no air support? How did six Iranian vessels "sneak up" on the British sailors?
The Britons are trained to avoid diplomatic incidents escalating into conflict, even when dealing with nations seemingly hell-bent on confrontation, such as Iran. But does Iran now have vessels which can sneak under coalition radar?
What does Iran want? Obviously, it wants its agents returned in what it sees as a straight hostage swap: The UK and US have opposed these deals in the past and the seriousness of the offences the Iranian agents are charged with would seem to prohibit a direct swap. Iran clearly wants to grandstand, too: Shortly after the men were taken hostage, the UN's Security Council voted unanimously to step up sanctions against Iran for its continuation of its nuclear programme. Iran retaliated by saying it would wind down co-operation with IAEA officials.
It gets to show its regional power, too. There is little that can be done to return the hostages. Britain's failed effort, along with Germany and France, to deter Iran from developing nuclear power aimed at building bombs showed that a softly-softly approach from the EU's major players fell on deaf ears; there is little appetite from the US or anyone else for an assualt on Iran.
In its leader, the Telegraph says "the threat must be made explicit: release these prisoners, or else," to which Tehran would doubtless reply, "Or else what?" The British don't even know where the men are to send in troops to release them - nor does Blair want to be the British PM who launched an apocalyptic confrontation in the Middle East. There doesn't seem to be any in-between strategy.
Indeed, it seems that if the Britons are freed, it will be on Iran's terms and on a time of its deciding.
