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France's Traditional Election Surprise
Jean-Marie Le Pen's career shows that some people don't know when to give up
Jean-Marie Le Pen, leader of France's far-right National Front (FN) party is making his fifth and probably final bid to be the next president of France. Political observers in Paris say he has little chance of winning.
Mr Le Pen astounded friends and foes alike by coming a surprise second in the 2002 presidential race. But now he is trailing in the opinion polls, with a rating of 12.5 percent.
Le Pen and his supporters counter that polls tend to underestimate support for right-wing candidates. Having the media and rival candidates depict your man as a dangerous hate figure makes FN sympathisers embarrassed or frightened to admit their preferences: Le Pen could still cause another big upset in April.
The four principal candidates are Nicolas Sarkozy, Ségolène Royal and centrist "third man" Francois Bayrou, with Le Pen in fourth place. However, the worry for the main contenders is that Le Pen's grassroots support remains strong. Especially in the north of France where there is high unemployment and persistent crime.
In a recent rally in the northern city of Lille he told 2,000 supporters that he would put "a halt to uncontrolled immigration of all the miserable people of the planet who are coming to compete with our impoverished workers".
And he has not lost his touch to provoke outrage. In a television interview broadcast before Christmas he said that anti-Semitism "can be funny". In this case, Le Pen was discussing his appearance at a rally with anti-Semitic comedian Dieudonné M'bala M'Bala, who, as you might surmise from his name, is not one of the National Front's usual target voters. Indeed, the FN has made an effort this year to include people from minority groups in its publicity material, under Le Pen's daughter Marine's advice.
The wild card in the game is actually the increasingly popular Francois Bayrou, who may drain undecided voters from both sides of the political spectrum. The latest poll suggests that Bayrou's support might have peaked at around 18-19 percent, but the poll was taken before new allegations of property scandals linked to Sarkozy and Royal which emerged this week.
Current polls show Sarkozy drawing away in the lead again. Sarkozy has been demonised by the left to an extraordinary degree: Many on the mainstream left will be concerned that this strategy has caused polls underestimate the interior minister's support. For his part, Sarkozy claims to pay now attention to polls.
Depressingly, speculation will continue until April, as two polling teams plan to release daily updates to their opinion polls until a week before the election first round.
There is a tradition of "Third Men" - mostly hyped by the media, bored by the usual Socialist vs Centre Right clash. Rather implausibly, there were suggestions in 2002 that Trotskyite cultist Arlette Laguiller would cause an upset; when her support began to fade, attention turned to "left-wing nationalist" Jean-Pierre Chevènement, who was all over the news for a brief period in early 2002. He later went on to win 5 percent of the vote, while the real "Third Man" Jean-Marie Le Pen, who the media studiously ignored, crashed into the second round, defeating mainstream Socialist Lionel Jospin.
In the end, it may all be a bad comédie française.
Even today it is not entirely clear whether Le Pen has collected the 500 signatures from elected officials to enable him to register as a presidential candidate.
But the day is not over yet and Jean-Marie Le Pen is a tricky adversary.
