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EU Memo: We Can't Stop Iran Bomb
An internal "reflection paper" circulated to all 27 national governments concludes that Iran will be able to enrich enough uranium to build a nuclear bomb - and that there is little the west can do to prevent it.
It adds that European pressure to engage Iran on its appalling human rights record have failed miserably: The Iranians have cancelled meetings with the Human Rights dialogue since 2004.
The FT has the major details of the document, which was produced by EU foreign policy boss Javier Solana's office.
The document's major finding is that the international diplomatic effort has failed to hold back Iran's quest for the weapons: Tehran's lack of technical expertise has been responsible for the slow progress towards the bomb, rather than the efforts of the UN or the International Atomic Energy Agency.
This is a further blow for the EU's UK-France-German trio, who set out to lead international diplomatic pressure to sway Tehran from building nuclear weapons. The US made it clear that it would go along with the EU-3's proposals: But now the EU itself reports that this path has failed.
The paper, if its findings are accepted in Europe's capitals, severely limits diplomatic space for manoeuvre.
The document claims that Iran's human rights situation continues to deteriorate, with China being the only nation executing more people. In the past two or three years, women's rights meetings have been violently suppressed, newspapers closed and censorship tightened on the internet.
Meetings planned by the EU to engage Iran have been ignored since 2004: In any case, the authors of the report say they made no impact, short of irritating Iran's leaders.
The report's authors urge leaders to engage with Iranian activists directly rather than through the nation's leaders - warning "where this does not endanger them or damage their cause."
Next comes a report on Iran's role in the region. It notes that Iran's self-confidence has been boosted: Energy reserves, the nuclear programme and the collapse of both Saddam Hussein and the Taliban have made Iran top dog in its part of the Middle East. The success of the conflict Tehran's attack dog Hizballah provoked with Israel last summer bolstered Iran's self-esteem even further.
Many in the Middle East and the west see Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as a dangerous madman. However, his international profile, his very visible support for Hizballah and his declarations urging Israel's destruction have made him popular on the "Arab Street", even if his own people are tiring of him.
Iran is unsettled by the US presence on its borders in Iraq and Afghanistan. "One of Iran’s policy aims is to see US forces leave. Hence its support for groups opposing them," the report says.
Also, in Afghanistan: "Iran is, at least, in contact with anti-Western groups."
On nuclear security the report concludes that Iran fears no-one in the region. Its principal security concern is the possibility of an attack by the US.
Sanctions could hit Iran where it is vulnerable economically:
"The sanctions contained in the (UN UNSCR 1737) Resolution have limited direct effect but they come at a moment when the economy is performing poorly, partly because of Iranian mismanagement. Ahmadinejad is under criticism because of rising inflation – officially at 12 per cent, in reality closer to 20 per cent; economic growth around 5 per cent per annum is not keeping up with the need for job creation. Foreign investment has all but dried up, partly because of the nuclear issue and associated action (e.g. restriction on Iranian banks, greater caution of export credit agencies). Without new investment, Iran risks being unable to maintain medium-term oil production, currently 50 per cent of government income."
However, they can't work alone: "Iran has shown great resilience to outside pressure in the past, for example during the Iran/Iraq war. The government may also exploit the sanctions to benefit nationalism or to explain economic failure."
The report concludes that the EU will continue to pursue sanctions and think of ways to bring Iran to the negotiating table. Military solutions to the growing crisis aren't mentioned, though the report makes a reference to maintaining "the unity of the international community" in handling Iran: A nod, perhaps, to keeping the US and Israel's fingers from the trigger.
The US has claimed it has no immediate plans to attack Iran. However press reports (mostly, but not exclusively among anti-american newspapers) claim that a Spring attack on Iran's nuclear facilities is imminent. The arrival of another US aircraft carrier in the region has concentrated minds, but sent the rumour mill into overdrive.
What will the EU's leaders make of this report? Frankly, it is embarrassing for their diplomats but surely it says nothing that they cannot already know. EURSOC hasn't been the only blog saying exactly the same thing about Iran for a year now: Why did the EU's governments need it spelled out?
