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Damp Squib?
North Korea's provocative missile test was dismissed as a "fireworks display" - as one of its long-range Taepodong-2 rockets crashed less than a minute after launch.
As the Guardian reports, the test had its intended effect of irritating the Americans. The US and its allies in the region had warned Pyongyang not to proceed with the test: Nations with more sympathetic relations with the Stalinist state were also reported to have pressured its leaders to halt the test for fear of provoking a crisis in the region.
The Taepodong-2 rocket had been fuelled and primed for launch for some weeks. International officials feared a test was imminent as fuel cannot be removed from the Taepodong, and remains stable for only four weeks once the tank is full. Experts claim it could reach Alaska. The smaller missiles fell into the Sea of Japan. Tokyo had warned that any missile flying over the Japanese islands would be interpreted as hostile action - though it is highly unlikely it would have warranted a military response, it would surely pressurise the Japanese government to step up its own defence plans.
The Taepodong-2 was launched at the same time as two smaller short-range missiles, similar to Iraq's Scuds. Launching began at 18.32 GMT, 03.32 in Japan. The missiles were tested over a period of four hours. There are some reports that a second Taepodong-2 was launched later, possibly at 17.22 Japan time. For now Japanese news agencies are reporting a missile was fired at that time.
As with everything else emanating from the secretive state, details of the launches are shady. Russia claims up to ten missiles were fired, while the Australian government says it expects more launches today.
As expected, the US has called an emergency meeting with the major powers in the region. Russia, China, Japan and South Korea will join the US in planning an international response to the launches, though the five powers entering talks have widely varying attitudes to the tests. Japan has called for a "severe response", and Washington is expected to back this, possibly calling for sanctions and blocks on aid - though the BBC reports that any US action will be tempered by relief at the fact that the most dangerous missile failed.
China is Pyongyang's erstwhile ally, and may resist tough action, not least because it fears a flood of starving North Korean refugees approaching its borders. The recent behavior of the Russian regime suggests it takes pleasure in Western discomfort, so it may be difficult to stir Moscow into action too.
And while South Korea was gripped with furious protests against the missile tests, Seoul's authorities do not wish to risk a conflict. North Korea's million-strong army is massed across the border from Seoul, and the South Korean's are well aware that they face the brunt of any retaliatory action from Pyongyang. Hence Seoul's sometimes suprisingly conciliatory gestures in the face of the North's provocation.
However, Washington will be hoping for a united front in any response, and is expected to play on Chinese fears of a nuclear build-up in its "sphere of influence." China has blustered that it is willing to risk disruption to the 2008 Olympic Games to defend its claim on Taiwan. Whether or not it would be willing to risk its growing international influence and economic clout protecting Kim Jong-il, North Korea's bizarre dictator, is a different matter. Washington's bet is that Beijing does not want a potential nuclear conflict in its back yard.
Pyongyang dismissed international fury, claiming that the tests were a matter of national sovereignty. Observers add that the North Koreans used them to step up the pressure on negotiations with the US aimed at relieving the North of its weapons in exchange for aid and a protection guarantee. There is also the fact that the US is tied up with military action in the middle east, and is trying to find means to halt Iran's nuclear weapons programme.
So are the missile tests the international equivalent of a temper tantrum? There is speculation that Kim Jong-il is under pressure from his military to prove his worth as a leader. The Dear Leader may be the supreme commander of North Korea's armed forces, but he has never served, and it is reported that the military holds the real power in Pyongyang.
The failure of the the most threatening missile will help win support for those who claim that the North Korean threat is overplayed. Former Australian ambassador to South Korea Richard Broinowski accused the US and Australian governments of exaggerating the North's capabilities, adding "The fact is that North Korea is a long way from having any kind of missile capability to reach any country." While it is difficult to imagine why the US would want to provoke yet another crisis, for the reasons listed above, perhaps a Japanese adminstration keen to bolster its defence credentials could benefit from North Korea's actions.
On the other hand, following the very public humiliation of the failed launch, Pyongyang might decide to respond by a second trial: Whether it does or not will give a closer insight into its capabilities.
